Last week the US Dollar continued to be under pressure, while demand for assets associated with risk was constantly growing. That triggered sales of defense instruments. The macroeconomic statistics from the US and the leading economies of the world had a positive sentiment and strengthened hopes that the growth of the global economy in 2013 would continue. Some negative was aroused by the data on US GDP at fourth quarter, but slowing of the pace of growth to the level of 0.1% was caused by “single-use” factor and didn’t lead to any serious concern. Data on the labor market almost coincided with expectations. By the end of last week on January 31 the precious metals were under pressure of macroeconomic data that demonstrated an improvement of the economy of the US and the EU. Herewith market participants were quite cautious and refrained from big operations at the eve of the key reports of the week. The report on the US economy turned out to be stronger than expected, what triggered Gold & Silver downgrade. For instance, the PMI index appreciated in contrast with negative forecasts. Though on Friday on February metals recovered a bit. One of the reasons was a lower than expected data from the US. We can see that the model, according to which precious metals went up in condition of soft credit and fiscal policies, has weakened a bit. Besides, some improvement of macroeconomic state also decreases short term and midterm demand for these assets as instruments for hedging inflation risk and easing of currencies risk.












CURRENCIES
EURUSD
The Euro continued to appreciate against its main American rival. It broke the resistance at      1.3550 and tested the level of 1.3640. Optimism about perspectives of the EU economy, the recovery of which is expected closer to the second half of the year, along with undervaluation of the Euro continue to push the rate up. In light of some improvement of the European economy the weekly forecast for the pair is positive. The goal is 1.3800
USDJPY
The unwillingness of the Bank of Japan to follow policy of a new prime minister couldn’t save Yen form depreciation. In the beginning of the new trading week the trend of Yen still looks bearish. Analysts assume continuation of the current trend, that will let the Dollar to approach its goal of 95, 50. On the way it will continue to undergo corrections on a regular basis. 

GBPUSD
The Pound continues to fill a bit unconfident. Last week it took advantage of Euro growth and Dollar decline. Nevertheless by the end of the week it got under pressure and traded at the level of 1, 5770. There is not much support anticipated from macroeconomic data for the coming week. So the trend here is quite uncertain and this pair will be interesting most likely to those who wish to open short positions.










MARKET DATA

Monday, February 4    
12:00am     NZD         ANZ Commodity Prices m/m            
12:30am     AUD         Building Approvals m/m        
        AUD         ANZ Job Advertisements m/m        
8:00am     EUR         Spanish Unemployment Change            
9:30am     EUR         Sentix Investor Confidence            
        GBP         Construction PMI            
10:00am     EUR         PPI m/m                
3:00pm     USD         Factory Orders m/m                
9:45pm     NZD         Labor Cost Index q/q                
10:30pm     AUD         AIG Services Index                
   
Tuesday, February 5    
12:01am     GBP         BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y        
12:30am     AUD         Trade Balance                
        AUD         HPI q/q            
3:30am     AUD         Cash Rate                
        AUD         RBA Rate Statement                    
7:00am     CHF         Trade Balance                
5th-7th     GBP         Halifax HPI m/m                
8:15am     EUR         Spanish Services PMI                
8:45am     EUR         Italian Services PMI                
9:00am     EUR         Final Services PMI            
9:30am     GBP         Services PMI


Wednesday, February 6    
12:01am     GBP         BRC Shop Price Index y/y                
12:30am     AUD         Retail Sales m/m                
11:00am     EUR         German Factory Orders m/m                
3:00pm     CAD         Ivey PMI        
3:30pm     USD         Crude Oil Inventories                
9:45pm     NZD         Employment Change q/q                
        NZD         Unemployment Rate            
10:30pm     AUD         AIG Construction Index            
11:50pm     JPY         Core Machinery Orders m/m

Thursday, February 7    
12:30am     AUD         Employment Change                
        AUD         Unemployment Rate                
        AUD         NAB Quarterly Business Confidence                    
5:00am     JPY         Leading Indicators                
6:45am     CHF         SECO Consumer Climate                
7:45am     EUR         French Trade Balance                
8:00am     CHF         Foreign Currency Reserves                    
9:30am     GBP         Manufacturing Production m/m                
        GBP         Trade Balance            
        GBP         Industrial Production m/m                
Tentative     EUR         French 10-y Bond Auction                    
11:00am     EUR         German Industrial Production m/m                
12:00pm     GBP         Asset Purchase Facility                
        GBP         Official Bank Rate                
Tentative     GBP         MPC Rate Statement                    
12:45pm     EUR         Minimum Bid Rate                
1:30pm     CAD         Building Permits m/m            
        CAD         NHPI m/m            
        EUR         ECB Press Conference                    
        USD         Unemployment Claims                
        USD         Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q                
        USD         Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

Friday, February 8
    12:30am     AUD         RBA Monetary Policy Statement                    
    1:00am     USD         FOMC Member Evans Speaks                    
    Tentative     CNY         Trade Balance                
    5:00am     JPY         Economy Watchers Sentiment                
    5:30am     CNY         CPI y/y                
                   CNY         PPI y/y                
    6:45am     CHF         Unemployment Rate                
    7:00am     EUR         German Trade Balance            
    7:45am     EUR         French Gov Budget Balance                    
    8:15am     CHF         Retail Sales y/y                
    9:00am     EUR         Italian Industrial Production m/m            
    1:15pm     CAD         Housing Starts            
    1:30pm     CAD         Employment Change                
                  CAD         Trade Balance            
                  CAD         Unemployment Rate                
                  USD         Trade Balance                
    3:00pm     USD         Wholesale Inventories m/m